In the event that the asteroid does strike Earth in 2046, there would be about a 70% chance it landed in the Pacific Ocean, but it could also hit the United States, Australia or South-East Asia, according to Richard Moissl, head of the ESA’s Planetary Defense Office. The other 1,448 asteroids on the Risk List have a level 0 threat rating, meaning either their likelihood of a collision with Earth “is so low as to be effectively zero,” the object is so small that it will “burn up in the atmosphere,” or that it will result in “infrequent meteorite falls that rarely cause damage.” The Torino Scale, which is used by NASA to evaluate risks from space, currently lists 2023 DW as a level 1 threat, which means it is “a routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger” and that “current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely.” While scientists with the ESA have placed this extraterrestrial projectile on their Risk List, a “catalogue of all objects for which a non-zero impact probability has been computed,” NASA has indicated there is currently no reason to alert the general public of the threat it poses. However, of the nearly 1,500 asteroids that are on this watch list, one thing sets 2023 DW apart from the rest: it is the only one to hold a risk rating greater than zero.
Initial calculations by astronomer Piero Sicoli predicted it has a one in 400 chance of striking our planet. NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office announced it has been tracking a new asteroid that could potentially hit Earth on Valentine’s Day in 2046. Estimated to be about the length of a 50-meter Olympic swimming pool, the asteroid, known as 2023 DW, was discovered last month, according to the European Space Agency (ESA).
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